A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
